Iranian public opinion as Raisi takes the stage

University of Maryland CISSM has released its most recent study based on a nationally representative survey conducted in Iran by IranPoll for the University of Maryland. University of Maryland CISSM was responsible for designing the questionnaire, getting feedback from relevant policy experts and practitioners, performing the analysis, and putting together the final report.

IranPoll partially sponsored the collection of the survey through “IranPoll Opinion Research Support Fund in Memory of Professor Thomas Schelling”.

Survey results were released on Oct 18, 2021 at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council (Washington DC). The survey covers many important issues. Primarily, it shows that Raisi has entered office at a very difficult time. Three quarters of Iranians describe Iran’s economy as bad and mostly blame domestic economic mismanagement and corruption, instead of the sanctions and the pandemic for Iran’s current economic situation. Despite the difficult path ahead, however, Iranians have some optimism about Raisi’s ability to address Iran’s problems.

The study is based on a probability sample nationally representative telephone survey. The fieldwork was conducted in Sep 2021 (Aug 30 – Sep 9, 2021), among a representative sample of 1001 Iranians. The margin of error is about +/- 3.1%. The AAPOR2 contact rate of the survey was 81%. The AAPOR2 cooperation rate of the survey was 79%. The overall response rate of the survey based on AAPOR2 was 60%. Survey was conducted using IranPoll’s standard nationally representative probabilistic sampling as detailed here.

MAIN FINDINGS:

Below please find the results of this survey in greater detail:

• The frequency tables of survey results.

• The presentation of the results by University of Maryland CISSM at the Atlantic Council could be watched here.

• The report written based on the survey results by University of Maryland CISSM.

• Charts showing some of the results created by University of Maryland CISSM are available below.

MEDIA COVERAGE:

Below are links to the articles covering this poll:

IranPoll's Prediction of Iran's 2021 Presidential Election

Iran’s thirteenth presidential election was held on 18 June 2021. IranPoll made its prediction of the presidential results exclusively available to Newsweek. Newsweek covered our predictions in a feature exclusive article published on 2021-06-17 at 5:12 PM EDT. Article covered the survey in detail and was featured as the top story on Newsweek’s first page.

Our predictions were based on the responses given by the ‘likely voters’ to this question: “Who will you be voting for in the upcoming presidential election?” The predictions were from a telephone survey conducted by IranPoll, an independent Toronto-based polling organization, among a nationally representative probability sample of 1000 Iranians over the age of 18 on Wednesday, June 16, 2021. The margin of sampling error was +/- 3.09%. Sampling and methodology details are available here.

As the official results of the election became public, IranPoll’s prediction accuracy could be evaluated. IranPoll predicted the voting results for 3 out of 4 candidates accurately within the margin of sampling error and for one candidate our prediction was 1.56% outside of the margin of sampling error.

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IranPoll Iranian Voter-Turnout Model

IranPoll has thoroughly investigated voter turnout in previous Iranian elections and has developed a model that has very accurately predicted past Iranian presidential elections. This model is based on 5 questions:

1. The respondents’ self-reported probability to vote (the question below)

2. The respondents’ self-reported probability of changing his/or mind about voting before the election

3. The respondents’ history of voting in previous elections

4. The degree of importance the respondents attribute to the upcoming election

5. The degree of impact on the outcome the respondents attribute to the votes of people like them

This exclusive IranPoll Iranian Voter-Turnout Model, which has proven predictive in past Iranian presidential elections, continuously predicts the turnout rate if a presidential election where to be held at that date. Obviously, as we get closer to the election, the prediction will become more and more accurate.

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A lot has been made about UMD-IranPoll Feb. 2021 survey’s question regarding the respondent’s likelihood of voting in the upcoming Iranian presidential election in June 2021 (Q60).

What is important to be said here is that values produced by such a question can only tell us about the attitudes of the respondents toward participation and cannot by itself tell us what the actual participation rate is going to be. This is not unique to elections in Iran and the fact that such direct questions about participation generally produce inflated numbers is a well-known phenomenon with which pollsters are well familiar.

For more on this issue, you may read:

• Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved? Evidence from the 2014 U.S. House elections, By Scott Keeter and Ruth Igielnik, Pew Research Center https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2016/01/07/measuring-the-likelihood-to-vote/

• Rogers, Todd. 2012. Why Bother Asking? The Limited Value of Self-Reported Vote Intention. HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP12-001, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/7779639

• Jackman, Simon; Spahn, Bradley. Why Does the American National Election Study Overestimate Voter Turnout? Political Analysis; Oxford Vol. 27, Iss. 2, (Apr 2019): 193-207. DOI:10.1017/pan.2018.36

• Dahlgaard, J., Hansen, J., Hansen, K., & Bhatti, Y. (2019). Bias in Self-reported Voting and How it Distorts Turnout Models: Disentangling Nonresponse Bias and Overreporting Among Danish Voters. Political Analysis, 27(4), 590-598. doi:10.1017/pan.2019.9